When there is no clouds, haze or fog, Hong Kong can provide some spectacular sunsets, just like the one featured in this post.

Somehow, a previous post of mine with the same title garnered some attention, but I believe it was more because of an understanding about the title referring to the political and economic situation. So, let us try to do the perilous exercise of combining a photographic post with some political and economic analysis and look at what announces sunsets over Hong Kong.

The 2014 turnaround

The consensus in 2014 was that, while Hong Kong grew more dependent of the mainland capital inflows, its economy fared pretty good for the situation.

Some special tax statuses such as the offshore status did a lot to attract capitals, not to mention the general view of the city as the doorway to mainland China.

But the influx of mainland capitals had as side effect of making everything more expensive for the locals, in particular cost of housing. As mainlanders grabbed everything for sale in HK, hongkongers were left with no option but to pay increasingly higher rent. For some categories, like the cardboard ladies, this precipitated the fall into poverty.

A constriction of the future

At the same time, wages and perspectives for future did not follow for the locals. The increasingly self-centered education system of HK, became more and more a hindrance, as its products came out of school with maybe a good academic training, but severely lacking in language mastery, both in English and in Mandarin. Only Cantonese survived, but was increasingly relegated to a useless role, as mandarin or putonghua is becoming the business language, and obviously, foreigners expected English in a former English colony.

The accumulation of these factors resulted in a constriction of the foreseeable future for the local HongKongese. While costs increased, wages did not follow suit and neither did the perspectives for future. Once able to move easily from country to country in the English-speaking world, the Hongkongese are increasingly locked down in their city. T

hey are part of China, but China imposes upon Hongkongese the same restrictions that they impose on foreigners. At the same time, Hongkongese are not terribly excited to go and live in what is for them (and many foreigners) a lawless and arbitrary land.

Umbrella movement: an economic as well as political protest

The issue of democracy was not the only one worrying the 2014 protesters. They wanted also to have the guarantee that the city would look out for their economic interests and invest into its population, not only facilitate the Chinese takeover of the economy. This side was pretty much occulted both by Western medias and by China.

Similarly to Thailand, as long as the economy would have been handled in a fair manner, and they would have felt being protected and invested into, I believe the population would not care much about democracy. The Legislative Council was always a game among few leaders. The powerful conjunction of political and economic unsatisfaction gave rise to the umbrella movement… Before it fell again into oblivion thanks to its leaders.

Nevertheless, China’s reaction to the movement was blunt and to some extent dumb. They have an opportunity with Carrie Lam to regain hearts and minds, but only to the extent a real social politics is implemented in HK.

The real sunset: becoming part of China

Hongkongese might have been able to accept becoming part of China if they were guaranteed their freedom and their unique character would be preserved. Unfortunately, the Chinese reaction went right to the opposite of protecting the unique nature of Hong Kong. Beijing is going to tear away its last embers of independence and focus innovation and investments on other cities, like Shanghai.

From that point of view, the increasing opening of the Chinese economy to foreign capitals may finally be the last blow to Hong Kong. With no foreign capitals, a housing market out of control and no hopes for social mobility or evolution, hongkongese might resort to the last possible exit strategy: immigrating before they become fully Chinese.